Treasury Yields Stable as Investors Consider Trump Tariffs
Key Points
- The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that Trump wrongfully used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to enforce tariffs, but Trump responded by immediately raising global tariffs to 15%
- Treasury yields showed minimal movement: 10-year at 4.076% (down less than 1 basis point), 30-year at 4.72%, and 2-year at 3.47%
- Investors are monitoring the tariff situation closely while awaiting durable goods orders and factory orders data on Monday, with producer price index data due Friday
AI Summary
Summary
U.S. Treasury yields remained largely stable early in the trading week as investors assessed the impact of President Trump's escalating tariff policies amid legal challenges.
Key Market Data
As of 3:47 a.m. ET:
- 10-year Treasury yield: 4.076% (down less than 1 basis point)
- 30-year Treasury bond yield: 4.72% (down less than 1 basis point)
- 2-year Treasury note yield: 3.47% (nearly flat)
Additional yields showed minimal movement across the curve, with the 1-month at 3.709%, 1-year at 3.532%, 3-month at 3.684%, and 6-month at 3.647%.
Major Developments
The Supreme Court delivered a 6-3 ruling Friday striking down most of Trump's tariffs, determining the president wrongfully used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to enforce the duties. The Court stated the law "does not authorize the President to impose tariffs."
Despite the legal setback, President Trump immediately responded by raising global tariffs to 15% from 10%, effective immediately, with additional levies planned. Trump justified the increase on Truth Social, claiming many countries have been "ripping" the U.S. off for decades.
Market Implications
Investors are closely monitoring the evolving tariff situation for potential impacts on inflation, trade relations, and economic growth. The bond market's muted response suggests uncertainty about the tariffs' enforceability and ultimate economic impact.
Upcoming economic data includes durable goods orders and factory orders Monday, with the producer price index scheduled for Friday release.
Model Analysis Breakdown
| Model | Sentiment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| GPT-5-mini | Neutral | 75% |
| Claude 4.5 Haiku | Neutral | 78% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Neutral | 85% |
| Consensus | Neutral | 79% |