US Economic Resilience Weights on Rate Cut Bets, Private Credit Risks | Real Yield 2/20/2026

• US economic resilience and persistent inflation are weakening the case for immediate Fed rate cuts, with the Fed likely to remain on hold.
• The Supreme Court struck down Trump's global tariffs, leading to market uncertainty regarding future trade policy and potential government revenue shortfalls.
• Private credit markets are facing increased scrutiny due to Blue Owl's withdrawal restrictions and rising default rates in some sectors, raising concerns about systemic risks.
• Strong demand for investment-grade credit persists, but concerns about AI disruption in loan markets and potential oversupply from hyperscalers are emerging.

The video discusses the US economic resilience and its implications for Fed rate cuts, highlighting mixed views on inflation and growth. It also covers the Supreme Court's decision to strike down Trump's global tariffs, creating uncertainty about future trade policy and government revenue. Significant attention is given to intensifying private credit risks, particularly following Blue Owl's decision to restrict withdrawals from one of its funds, and the potential disruptive impact of AI on loan markets.