What will happen to Trump's tariffs after supreme court verdict?

• The court struck down tariffs Trump imposed under emergency powers on dozens of countries including the UK, China, Canada, Mexico, and EU nations, affirming lower court rulings
• Experts say Trump will pivot to other tariff authorities like section 232 (targeted sector tariffs with EU steel at 50%) or section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act (allowing 15% surcharges for 150 days)
• Refunds of $240-300 billion paid mostly by US firms and consumers could be owed but are 'not likely to be paid back soon,' with Justice Kavanaugh calling the process a 'mess'

Summary: Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump Tariffs

Key Ruling:

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that President Trump exceeded his authority by imposing tariffs without congressional approval, determining that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977 does not authorize presidential tariff imposition. Trump reportedly called the decision a "disgrace."

Financial Impact:

Tariff revenues for the previous year are estimated at $240-300 billion, with approximately 90% paid by U.S. firms and largely passed to consumers through price increases. If forced to issue refunds to U.S. importers, the government faces massive costs, though Justice Brett Kavanaugh warned the refund process would be a "mess" and not resolved quickly.

Market Implications:

Experts say Trump is unlikely to abandon his tariff strategy. Alternative mechanisms include:

• Section 232 investigations (targeted sector tariffs, including 50% on EU steel)
• Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act (allowing temporary 15% import surcharges for 150 days)

Companies have invested significantly in adapting to import requirements and await clarity before adjusting supply chains again.

International Response:

The UK's Department for Business and Trade noted its preferential deal (zero tariffs on steel, automobiles, pharmaceuticals) remains unaffected. The European Commission continues analyzing the ruling, advocating for trade stability. Germany's BDI confederation called it a "strong signal for the rule of law."

Next Steps:

Trump's State of the Union address next week may reveal his strategy. The EU Parliament's International Partnership Committee votes Tuesday on ratifying the Scotland trade deal, with final vote expected early March—potentially subject to fresh pause.