About half of Trump's tariffs are now null and void - but his trade war is not over

• About half of Trump's tariffs, specifically those imposed under the IEEPA for 'Liberation Day', are now null and void following the Supreme Court ruling
• The administration may be required to refund part or all of the money collected under these now-invalidated tariffs
• The ruling comes as Trump's poll ratings slump partly due to tariff unpopularity, though the White House may attempt to reimpose levies using other legal loopholes like Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act

Summary

The U.S. Supreme Court has struck down approximately half of President Trump's tariffs, ruling that tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) are unconstitutional. This represents a significant legal setback for the administration's trade policy.

Key Legal Background:

The ruling centers on constitutional separation of powers, which mandates Congress, not the president, sets taxes including tariffs. Trump exploited historical legal loopholes to unilaterally impose tariffs, including Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 (used for steel and aluminum tariffs citing national security) and the IEEPA of 1977 (used for "Liberation Day" tariffs justified by trade deficits and illegal drug flows).

Immediate Impact:

• Approximately 50% of Trump's tariffs are now void
• The administration may be required to refund tariff revenues collected under these measures
• Remaining tariffs imposed under other legal provisions (like Section 232) remain intact

Market Implications:

The decision adds uncertainty to U.S. trade policy during a period when Trump's poll ratings are declining, partly due to tariff unpopularity. Analysts expect the administration will either attempt to reimpose tariffs using alternative legal loopholes or potentially scale back its trade war strategy.

The ruling doesn't end Trump's trade war but forces a recalibration of tactics. The White House may blame judicial obstruction, though political pressure from declining public support could push toward policy concessions. Expect continued volatility and "on-again-off-again" trade policy developments affecting markets and international trade relationships.