Thursday's Final Takeaways: Trade Deficit Narrows & Tech Rotation Continues
Schwab Network
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February 19, 2026 at 11:16 PM UTC
Neutral
95% Confidence
Watch on YouTube
Key Points
- US trade deficit slightly narrowed in 2025, but the goods deficit hit a record $1.24 trillion.
- Mortgage rates fell to near 4-year lows (30-year fixed at 6.01%, 15-year at 5.35%), boosting refinancing applications.
- The market is characterized as 'weird' with internal tension and rotation out of tech, which is seen as a way to correct excesses.
- Upcoming PCE inflation data and 4Q GDP figures could dampen market optimism if expectations are met or missed.
- A potential SCOTUS ruling on Trump's tariffs is also a significant event to watch for on Friday.
AI Summary
The discussion covers Thursday's market takeaways, including a slightly narrowing trade deficit and mortgage rates falling to a near four-year low, which could offer a rare break for homebuyers. Sam Vadas describes the current market as 'weird' due to internal tension and sector rotation. Looking ahead to Friday, key data points like PCE inflation and 4Q GDP, along with a potential SCOTUS ruling on tariffs, are highlighted as market movers.
Model Analysis Breakdown
| Model | Sentiment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Neutral | 95% |
| Consensus | Neutral | 95% |