"Big Drop" in Jobless Claims, "Big Jump" in Trade Deficit

• Weekly initial jobless claims dropped significantly to 206K, indicating a strong labor market.
• The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index surprised positively at 16.3, well above estimates.
• The trade deficit widened to $70.3 billion, and crude oil prices are up over 5.5% this week due to geopolitical risk premium.
• Fed minutes revealed a divided Fed, with some members even considering rate hikes, pushing easing probabilities to June or later.
• Stock futures are lower, reflecting a 'risk-off' sentiment amid geopolitical and AI concerns.

The market is experiencing mixed signals with futures trading lower despite better-than-expected jobless claims and a strong Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Concerns include a widening trade deficit and rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions with Iran. The Federal Reserve remains divided on interest rate policy, with easing probabilities pushed further into the year.