TikTok's U.S. User Base Stabilizes After Rocky Begin
Key Points
- Average daily usage rebounded to 80 minutes after briefly dropping to 77 minutes during the week of reported disruptions, while app deletions spiked temporarily but quickly tapered off
- Alternative platforms like UpScrolled saw initial surge of 770% in downloads but fell 80% the following week, while TikTok maintained steady download levels around 800,000-870,000 weekly
- New terms allow TikTok to collect precise location data and AI interaction information, raising concerns about potential algorithmic manipulation, though analysts found no evidence of meaningful content changes
AI Summary
TikTok's U.S. User Base Stabilizes After Rocky Transition
Summary
TikTok's U.S. joint venture has weathered initial turbulence with minimal user attrition, contradicting early predictions of a mass exodus. Market intelligence firm Sensor Tower reports that daily active users remain at approximately 95% of pre-transition levels compared to the week of January 19-25.
Key Transaction Details
The TikTok USDS Joint Venture was established January 23 following a presidential mandate requiring divestiture from Chinese parent ByteDance. The new ownership structure includes ByteDance (19.9%), Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX (each 15%). Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison's involvement drew scrutiny from figures including Sen. Bernie Sanders over potential cronyism concerns.
User Engagement Metrics
Despite service disruptions on January 25 and censorship allegations regarding ICE operations and the term "Epstein," engagement recovered quickly:
- Average daily usage time dipped to 77 minutes during disruptions but rebounded to 80 minutes
- App uninstalls surged temporarily, with same-day reinstalls jumping 70% on January 25, suggesting troubleshooting rather than abandonment
- TikTok downloads reached 870,000 (Jan 26-Feb 1) and 800,000 the following week
Competitor Performance
Alternative platforms failed to sustain momentum:
- UpScrolled saw 770% surge to 955,000 downloads (Jan 26-Feb 1), but declined 80% the following week
- Skylight Social and Red Note downloads dropped 96% and 33% respectively
Market Implications
Analysts from Forrester and Davis+Gilbert note the algorithm "hasn't meaningfully changed" for most users. However, new terms allow precise location tracking, AI interaction data collection, and explicit ad network integration. Experts warn that perceived political bias in content moderation could trigger future backlash from users and advertisers, though no hard evidence of algorithmic manipulation has emerged.
Model Analysis Breakdown
| Model | Sentiment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| GPT-5-mini | Neutral | 70% |
| Claude 4.5 Haiku | Bullish | 68% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Bullish | 85% |
| Consensus | Bullish | 74% |