US consumers, businesses bore about 90% of Trump's tariffs, NY Fed study finds

• In the first eight months of 2025, 94% of tariff costs fell on American businesses and consumers, with that figure remaining near 90% through October according to the New York Fed study
• Tariff collections reached $287 billion in calendar year 2025, nearly tripling the previous year and representing a 304% increase, making them the largest tax increase since 1993
• The White House is reviewing exemptions and considering more targeted national security investigations rather than expanding tariffs further, as some Republican lawmakers join Democrats in supporting legislation to overturn certain levies

Summary: US Consumers and Businesses Bear 90% of Trump Tariff Costs

A Federal Reserve Bank of New York study reveals that US businesses and consumers absorbed approximately 90% of President Trump's 2025 tariff costs, contradicting administration claims that foreign countries paid. In the first eight months of 2025, Americans bore 94% of tariff costs, declining slightly to roughly 90% by October.

Key Findings:

• Trump imposed duties up to 50% on metal imports and expanded levies to products including household appliances and cars
• US average tariff rates increased nearly sevenfold over the past year
• Import duties reached their highest levels in decades

Financial Impact:

• Tariff collections hit $287 billion in calendar year 2025, nearly tripling the previous year
• Fiscal year-to-date tariff revenue reached $124 billion, a 304% year-over-year increase
• Tax Foundation projects $171.1 billion in tariff revenue for 2026, the largest tax increase since 1993
• January deficit fell 26% year-over-year, with fiscal year-to-date gap down 17%

Political Context:

The findings emerge amid mounting pressure before November's midterm elections. The administration is reviewing potential exemptions and considering halting further tariff expansion, shifting toward targeted national security investigations. Some Republican lawmakers have joined Democrats in supporting legislation to overturn certain levies, while the Supreme Court weighs the constitutional justification for the tariffs.

Investment Response:

Despite tariff burdens, companies announced significant US investments: Stellantis ($13B), Toyota ($10B), Apple ($600B), TSMC ($165B), and Hyundai ($26B), suggesting some supply-chain diversification benefits.

The White House maintains that tax cuts, deregulation, and tariffs are reducing costs despite the Fed's findings.