Energy "Dominates" CPI, Watch VIX & Software Beatdown into Weekend

Schwab Network | February 13, 2026 at 03:01 PM UTC
Bullish 90% Confidence
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Key Points

  • January Headline CPI (M/M) was 0.2% (vs. 0.3% estimate) and (Y/Y) was 2.4% (vs. 2.5% estimate), indicating cooler-than-expected inflation.
  • Energy prices, especially gasoline (down 7.5% Y/Y), were the primary drivers of the cooler CPI, with energy commodities down 3.3% and fuel oil down 5.7%.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield decreased to 4.09%, and equity futures saw a positive turnaround, reflecting a generally positive macro outlook for the U.S. economy.

AI Summary

January's CPI report came in cooler than expected, largely due to a significant decline in energy prices, particularly gasoline. This led to a positive market reaction, with equity futures turning around from earlier lows. Despite some sector-specific pressures like in software, the overall macro economic data for the week, including unemployment and inflation, is viewed as positive, potentially influencing the Fed's future decisions.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bullish 90%
Consensus Bullish 90%