Rivian Exceeds Q4 Forecasts, Warns of Continued Losses with Production Rise

• Full-year 2025 revenue reached $5.34 billion, up 8% from 2024, with gross profit of $144 million achieved largely through Rivian's software joint venture with Volkswagen offsetting $432 million in automotive losses
• Net loss improved to $3.6 billion in 2025 from $4.75 billion in 2024, though Q4 loss of $804 million was impacted by decreased regulatory credit sales following Trump administration rollbacks to emissions standards
• Capital expenditures for 2026 expected between $1.95 billion and $2.05 billion, up from $1.7 billion in 2025, as the company invests in launching the crucial R2 vehicle

Rivian Q4 Summary: Revenue Beat Offset by Ongoing Losses

Financial Performance:

Rivian exceeded Q4 expectations with revenue of $1.29 billion versus $1.26 billion expected. Full-year 2025 revenue reached $1.7 billion, up 8% from $4.97 billion in 2024. However, the company reported a net loss of $3.6 billion for 2025, improved from $4.75 billion in 2024, with Q4 losses at $804 million.

Key Achievement:

The company achieved gross profit of $144 million in 2025, including $120 million in Q4. This metric was driven by a $1.7 billion software and services joint venture with Volkswagen, which offset $432 million in automotive business losses.

2026 Guidance:

Rivian projects vehicle deliveries between 62,000-67,000 units, representing a 47%-59% increase compared to 2025. The company expects adjusted losses of $1.8-2.1 billion and capital expenditures of $1.95-2.05 billion, compared to nearly $2.1 billion in losses and $1.7 billion in capex last year.

Market Context:

The upcoming R2 next-generation vehicle is viewed as critical to Rivian's path to profitability. Q4 results were impacted by decreased regulatory credit sales following Trump administration changes to federal fuel economy and emissions standards.

Investment Implications:

While revenue growth and improved gross profit margins signal progress, continued substantial losses and high capital requirements highlight ongoing cash burn concerns. The Volkswagen partnership provides crucial financial support, but profitability remains dependent on successful R2 launch and significant production scaling.