One Year After Trump Tariffs, Chinese Factories and Ports Thrive

• Chinese ports saw 40% year-over-year growth in container volume during the week ending Feb. 1, the fastest growth in over 12 months, with Ningbo terminals operating beyond capacity and overbooked by more than 20%
• The surge in pre-holiday demand pushed freight rates up significantly, with trucking rates increasing 80% due to severe congestion and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index rising above historical averages
• U.S. companies have resumed product development and order placement after a year of uncertainty, with factories maintaining export levels similar to pre-tariff periods despite ongoing supply chain diversification efforts

Summary: Chinese Factories and Ports Show Strong Activity One Year After Trump Tariffs

Key Findings

Despite Trump-era tariffs imposed a year ago, Chinese manufacturing and port activity is thriving ahead of the 2026 Lunar New Year holiday. Factory operations are running at near-full capacity, with significant increases in production and exports.

Critical Data Points

• Port activity: Major Chinese ports handled 40% more containers during the week ended February 1 compared to year-ago levels—the fastest growth in over 12 months
• Freight costs: Trucking rates surged 80% due to severe congestion
• Container shipments: Large container volumes to the U.S. exceeded 2024 and 2025 levels throughout most of January into February
• Air freight: Baltic Exchange's Shanghai outbound index rose 5.3% week-over-week

Company and Regional Focus

Guangdong-based electronics manufacturer Agilian Technology reports operating at nearly full capacity, with over half its products still shipping to the U.S. Ningbo port terminals operated beyond capacity, with vessels overbooked by more than 20%.

Market Implications

The activity surge stems from pre-holiday front-loading, though timing differences (mid-February holiday in 2026 vs. late January 2025) contribute to inflated comparisons. China Beige Book data shows industrial output, domestic orders, and export orders all "accelerating sharply."

Despite ongoing "China-plus-one" diversification strategies, multinational companies maintain significant Chinese production. Following a one-year trade truce keeping tariffs lower, American customers have resumed placing orders and developing new products after a period of uncertainty-driven freezes.

The trend suggests "de-risking, not decoupling," as businesses balance supply chain diversification with continued reliance on Chinese manufacturing capacity.