Seasonality Indicates an Important Peak in March for the NASDAQ 100

• Mid-term election year seasonality shows the NASDAQ 100 typically bottoms in early February, rallies to a March 18 peak, then declines through October. The index bottomed February 6, 2026, aligning with this pattern.
• The target of $26,608 represents 161.8% of the 2020-2021 rally measured from the 2020 low. When third waves miss targets, B-waves of fourth waves often reach them, as seen in July 2011, November 2015, October 2018, and February 2020.
• The analyst expects a multi-month correction following the March peak, potentially dropping to 5,800 (+/- 300) before the next rally phase can begin toward 8,100+.

Market Summary: NASDAQ 100 Seasonality Analysis

Key Thesis:

Technical analysis indicates the NASDAQ 100 may reach an important peak around March 18, 2026, at approximately $26,600, followed by a multi-month correction through October.

Critical Data Points:

• The index has traded sideways since October 2025, currently at early October levels
• Target: $26,608 (161.8% extension of 2020-2021 rally from 2022 low)
• Secondary near-term target: $24,200 +/- 200
• Expected correction post-March peak: decline to 5,800 +/- 300 before next rally to 8,100+

Technical Analysis Framework:

The forecast combines Elliott Wave (EW) analysis with mid-term election year seasonality patterns. Historical midterm election years show the index typically:

• Bottoms early February (occurred Feb 6, 2026)
• Peaks around February 15
• Dips briefly around February 21
• Rallies to final March 18 high
• Declines substantially through October

Historical Context:

Wave-3 peaked October 29, 2025, but fell 500 points short of targets. The analyst notes similar patterns in July 2011, November 2015, October 2018, and February 2020, where B-waves reached new highs before significant C-wave declines.

Warning Levels for Bears: 24,854; 25,112; 25,418; 25,840; 26,182

Market Implications:

Investors should anticipate potential short-term upside through mid-March, followed by a substantial multi-month correction. The analysis suggests focusing on weekly/monthly timeframes rather than volatile daily movements for strategic positioning.