US added 130,000 jobs in January, surpassing expectations as 2025 growth is slashed
Key Points
- January's 130,000 job gains doubled December's 50,000 but remained 13,000 below January 2025 levels, signaling a slowing growth trend
- 2025 total job additions were drastically revised down to 181,000 from 584,000, compared to 2 million jobs added in 2024
- Job openings fell to 6.542 million in December 2025 (lowest since September 2020), while January 2026 layoffs reached 108,435, up 118% year-over-year and the highest start-of-year figure since 2009
AI Summary
Summary
The US labor market added 130,000 jobs in January 2026, significantly exceeding economist expectations of 70,000 and more than doubling December's 50,000 additions. The unemployment rate stood at 4.3%, showing slight cooling from fall levels. However, the gains remain 13,000 jobs below January 2025's performance.
Key Revisions: The report included substantial downward revisions to 2025 total job growth, slashing the figure from 584,000 to just 181,000—the weakest annual performance since the COVID-19 pandemic. This contrasts sharply with 2 million jobs added in 2024.
Market Context: The labor market faces significant headwinds from policy uncertainty around trade and immigration. January 2026 saw 108,435 layoffs—up 118% year-over-year and the highest January figure since 2009, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Job openings fell to 6.542 million in December 2025, the lowest since September 2020.
Monetary Policy Implications: The weakening labor market hasn't prompted Federal Reserve interest rate cuts due to persistent inflation concerns. January inflation stood at 2.7%, with Fed Chair Powell noting tariff effects continue influencing prices. The central bank cited immigration policies and labor force participation as factors in slowed job growth.
Consumer Impact: Consumer sentiment registered 57.3 in February—11% lower than February 2025—reflecting ongoing price pressures.
White House adviser Peter Navarro attributed lower job expectations to reduced immigration, claiming previous administration figures were "inflated" by immigrant employment. The jobs report release was delayed due to a brief government shutdown in early February.
Model Analysis Breakdown
| Model | Sentiment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| GPT-5-mini | Bearish | 82% |
| Claude 4.5 Haiku | Bearish | 85% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Bearish | 90% |
| Consensus | Bearish | 85% |