US jobs report to be released today: here's what to expect

• December 2025 saw only 50,000 jobs added, reflecting the average monthly gain for a year marked by a 'low-hire, low-fire' environment where employers avoided both expansion and layoffs
• White House officials are tempering expectations, with advisers suggesting that sub-100,000 monthly job gains should no longer be considered alarming due to immigration restrictions, AI adoption, and slower labor-force growth
• Markets are pricing in at least two 25-basis-point Fed rate cuts in 2026, with Treasury yields falling and weaker-than-expected jobs data potentially strengthening the case for continued monetary easing

Summary: US January Jobs Report - Expectations and Market Implications

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release January employment data on February 11, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET, providing crucial insights into labor market health after 2025 recorded the weakest job growth outside recession since 2003.

Key Expectations

Economists forecast approximately 65,000 jobs added in January (Bloomberg consensus), with Dow Jones projecting a slightly lower 55,000 jobs, compared to December's 50,000. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.4%. These figures represent the largest monthly gain in four months but remain historically subdued.

Important Context

The labor market has been characterized as a "low-hire, low-fire" environment, with employers reluctant to expand payrolls or conduct layoffs. Annual BLS revisions may reduce future payroll estimates by roughly 20,000 jobs per month, potentially reshaping perceptions of labor market strength.

White House Messaging

Senior advisers Peter Navarro and Kevin Hassett are managing expectations downward, suggesting sub-100,000 monthly gains should not be alarming due to immigration restrictions, AI adoption, and broader economic trends.

Market Positioning

Financial markets are pricing in weaker data. Treasury yields declined ahead of the release, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.13% (lowest in five weeks) and the 2-year at 3.45%. Equity futures showed modest gains, with S&P 500 up 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 up 0.2%.

Fed Implications

According to CME FedWatch, investors are pricing in at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2026. Weaker employment data could strengthen the case for continued monetary easing, making this report critical for rate policy decisions.