This S&P 500 Sector Shows How Badly Trump's Tariffs Hurt Consumers

• Hasbro leads sector with expected Q4 profit growth of 106%, despite toy industry's vulnerability to tariffs due to overseas supply chains; stock up 18% year-to-date with RS Rating of 88
• DoorDash expected to show 46% EPS growth for Q4, but stock down 18% this year with RS Rating falling to 20 as growth projections drop from 677% to just 42% by 2026
• Travel sector shows cooling trends as Expedia's EPS growth estimate falls to 20% for this year from 27% in 2025, reflecting potential impact of renewed nationalism on consumer travel behavior

Summary: Consumer Discretionary Sector Earnings Signal Tariff Impact

The S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector is set to provide crucial insights into how Trump's tariffs and economic policies are affecting consumers, with major companies reporting fourth-quarter 2025 results this week.

Key Companies and Earnings Expectations

Strong performers:

• Hasbro (HAS): Leading the sector with expected Q4 profit growth of 106.1% year-over-year, the highest in the sector. Stock up 18% year-to-date with an RS Rating of 88.
• DoorDash (DASH): Projected EPS growth of 45.5% for Q4, though the stock is down 18% this year with a declining RS Rating of 20. Future growth concerns emerge as EPS growth expected to fall from 677% to just 42% in 2026.
• Expedia Group (EXPE): Anticipated Q4 profit growth of 39%, but 2025 full-year growth projected at just 20%, down from 27% in 2024.

Market Implications

The consumer discretionary sector faces significant headwinds from tariffs due to overseas supply chains and the discretionary nature of spending. Analysts note that while five of eleven S&P 500 sectors gained last week, with 63% of S&P 1500 subindustries advancing, the mantra remains "rotate, don't retreat."

The toy industry is particularly vulnerable given its reliance on overseas manufacturing. Travel and food delivery sectors also face pressure as rising nationalism and consumer caution potentially dampen spending.

CFRA's Sam Stovall notes selective sector strength, suggesting investors should focus on rotation strategies rather than wholesale market retreat. Consumer discretionary earnings may prove more revealing about broader economic health than recent technology sector results.