Retail Sales Stagnate in December, Fall Short of Expectations
CNBC
|
February 10, 2026 at 01:57 PM UTC
Bearish
82% Confidence
Unanimous Agreement
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Key Points
- Retail sales showed 0% growth in December versus the 0.5% increase expected by economists
- The miss indicates softer consumer demand during the critical holiday shopping season
- Flat sales performance may signal concerns about economic momentum and consumer confidence
AI Summary
Summary: December Retail Sales Miss Expectations
Key Data:
- December retail sales were flat (0.0% growth)
- Dow Jones consensus forecast: +0.5% increase
- Miss of 0.5 percentage points versus expectations
Market Implications:
The stagnant December retail sales figure represents a significant disappointment for market participants and signals potential weakness in consumer spending, which accounts for approximately two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. The flat reading fell short of the expected 0.5% increase, suggesting consumers may be pulling back on discretionary purchases.
This underperformance could have several implications:
- Economic Growth Concerns: Weaker-than-expected retail activity may indicate softer GDP growth in Q4 and potential headwinds for the broader economy entering the new year.
- Retail Sector Impact: Retail stocks may face near-term pressure as the data suggests challenging conditions for brick-and-mortar and e-commerce retailers during the critical holiday shopping season.
- Federal Reserve Policy: The tepid consumer spending data could influence Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions, potentially supporting arguments for more dovish positioning if economic weakness persists.
- Consumer Health: The flat reading may reflect continued pressure from elevated prices, reduced savings rates, or increased caution among households regarding discretionary spending.
Note: This article was labeled as breaking news, indicating updates may follow with additional detail on specific retail categories, revisions to prior months, or commentary from economists and analysts.
Model Analysis Breakdown
| Model | Sentiment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| GPT-5-mini | Bearish | 75% |
| Claude 4.5 Haiku | Bearish | 78% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Bearish | 95% |
| Consensus | Bearish | 82% |