December retail sales were flat, missing expectations

CNBC | February 10, 2026 at 01:52 PM UTC
Bearish 83% Confidence Unanimous Agreement
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Key Points

  • Retail sales showed 0% growth in December versus the 0.5% increase economists had forecast
  • The miss indicates potential softness in consumer demand during the typically strong holiday retail period
  • Weaker-than-expected retail performance may influence Federal Reserve policy decisions and economic outlook assessments

AI Summary

SUMMARY: December Retail Sales Miss Expectations

December retail sales came in flat (0.0%), falling short of economist expectations for a 0.5% increase, according to the Dow Jones consensus. This represents a notable disappointment for the final month of 2025's holiday shopping season.

Key Data Points:

  • Actual retail sales growth: 0.0% (flat)
  • Expected growth: +0.5%
  • Miss: -0.5 percentage points

Market Implications:

The weaker-than-expected retail sales data suggests consumer spending momentum slowed significantly during the critical December holiday period. This metric is closely watched as consumer spending accounts for approximately two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.

The disappointing figures may indicate:

  • Potential softening in consumer demand
  • Possible headwinds for retail sector earnings
  • Questions about economic growth sustainability heading into the new year
  • Potential implications for Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions

Sectors Affected:

The retail sector broadly is impacted by this data, with particular relevance for:

  • Department stores
  • E-commerce companies
  • Consumer discretionary stocks
  • Payment processors

Investment Considerations:

Traders should monitor this data for potential volatility in retail stocks and broader market indices. The miss could weigh on consumer-focused equities and may influence Federal Reserve policymakers' assessment of economic conditions. Investors should watch for revisions to Q4 GDP estimates and upcoming retail earnings reports for further clarity on consumer health.

This breaking news story may be updated with additional detail including category-specific breakdowns and ex-auto figures.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bearish 75%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bearish 80%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bearish 95%
Consensus Bearish 83%