December retail sales were flat, missing expectations
Key Points
- Retail sales showed 0% growth in December versus the 0.5% increase economists had forecast
- The miss indicates potential softness in consumer demand during the typically strong holiday retail period
- Weaker-than-expected retail performance may influence Federal Reserve policy decisions and economic outlook assessments
AI Summary
SUMMARY: December Retail Sales Miss Expectations
December retail sales came in flat (0.0%), falling short of economist expectations for a 0.5% increase, according to the Dow Jones consensus. This represents a notable disappointment for the final month of 2025's holiday shopping season.
Key Data Points:
- Actual retail sales growth: 0.0% (flat)
- Expected growth: +0.5%
- Miss: -0.5 percentage points
Market Implications:
The weaker-than-expected retail sales data suggests consumer spending momentum slowed significantly during the critical December holiday period. This metric is closely watched as consumer spending accounts for approximately two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.
The disappointing figures may indicate:
- Potential softening in consumer demand
- Possible headwinds for retail sector earnings
- Questions about economic growth sustainability heading into the new year
- Potential implications for Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions
Sectors Affected:
The retail sector broadly is impacted by this data, with particular relevance for:
- Department stores
- E-commerce companies
- Consumer discretionary stocks
- Payment processors
Investment Considerations:
Traders should monitor this data for potential volatility in retail stocks and broader market indices. The miss could weigh on consumer-focused equities and may influence Federal Reserve policymakers' assessment of economic conditions. Investors should watch for revisions to Q4 GDP estimates and upcoming retail earnings reports for further clarity on consumer health.
This breaking news story may be updated with additional detail including category-specific breakdowns and ex-auto figures.
Model Analysis Breakdown
| Model | Sentiment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| GPT-5-mini | Bearish | 75% |
| Claude 4.5 Haiku | Bearish | 80% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Bearish | 95% |
| Consensus | Bearish | 83% |