Chevron's Tengiz Oilfield Restores 60% of Normal Output, According to Sources
Key Points
- Kazakhstan's oil production recovered to 1.6 million bpd in the week of February 1-8, up from 1.27 million bpd average in January when Tengiz was largely offline
- CPC oil exports are expected to drop to around 1.1 million bpd in February from a preliminary schedule of 1.7 million bpd, with January loadings falling to just 880,000 bpd (nearly half the initial plan)
- Tengiz oilfield is operated by the Chevron-led Tengizchevroil consortium and is Kazakhstan's largest oilfield, located on the northeastern shores of the Caspian Sea
AI Summary
Summary
Operational Recovery at Tengiz Oilfield
Chevron's Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan has restored approximately 60% of normal production, reaching 550,000 barrels per day (bpd) as of February 8, according to industry sources. The field is expected to achieve full capacity of 950,000 bpd by February 23, following a prolonged shutdown caused by fires at power facilities on January 18.
Production Impact
Tengiz accounts for roughly 40% of Kazakhstan's total oil output. The outage significantly affected the country's overall production, which averaged just 1.27 million bpd in January but has since recovered to 1.6 million bpd during the week of February 1-8. Kazakhstan ranks as the world's 12th largest oil producer.
Export Disruptions
The production halt caused substantial export reductions through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), Kazakhstan's primary export route crossing Russia to the Black Sea. January CPC Blend oil loadings plummeted to 880,000 bpd—nearly half the initial plan. February exports are projected to decline further from a preliminary schedule of 1.7 million bpd to approximately 1.1 million bpd.
Market Implications
The Tengiz disruption has created temporary supply constraints in global oil markets, particularly affecting flows through the CPC pipeline. As the Chevron-led Tengizchevroil consortium works toward full production restoration, regional oil export volumes should normalize by late February. The incident remains under investigation by Kazakh authorities. The temporary supply reduction could support near-term oil prices, though the anticipated recovery timeline limits prolonged market impact.
Model Analysis Breakdown
| Model | Sentiment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| GPT-5-mini | Bearish | 75% |
| Claude 4.5 Haiku | Bullish | 78% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Bullish | 95% |
| Consensus | Neutral | 82% |