Exclusive: Mexico seeking way to send fuel to Cuba without being hit by US tariffs, sources say

Reuters | February 05, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
Neutral 72% Confidence Unanimous Agreement
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Key Points

  • Cuba requires fuel imports for two-thirds of its energy needs and is experiencing acute shortages after Mexico, its largest supplier, halted shipments in mid-January due to Trump administration pressure
  • High-level Mexican officials are holding talks 'almost every other day' with U.S. counterparts to determine if fuel can be sent as humanitarian aid, potentially including gasoline, food, and supplies within days if agreement is reached
  • Mexico faces competing pressures: avoiding U.S. tariffs while maintaining ideological ties to Cuba, as President Sheinbaum warns that tariffs on oil suppliers could trigger a humanitarian crisis affecting Cuban hospitals and basic services

AI Summary

Summary: Mexico Seeks to Navigate US Tariffs on Cuba Fuel Shipments

Key Development: Mexican officials are in high-level negotiations with U.S. counterparts to find a way to send fuel to Cuba without triggering tariff reprisals threatened by the Trump administration. Talks are reportedly occurring "almost every other day."

Background Context: Cuba requires fuel imports for two-thirds of its energy needs and is experiencing severe shortages with prolonged power outages. Venezuelan oil shipments ceased in December 2024 following a U.S. blockade and President Maduro's capture in January 2025, making Mexico Cuba's largest remaining supplier. However, Mexico halted shipments in mid-January under U.S. pressure.

U.S. Policy: President Trump issued an executive order threatening tariffs against countries supplying oil to Cuba, citing the island poses an "extraordinary threat" to U.S. national security.

Proposed Solution: Mexico is considering classifying fuel shipments as humanitarian aid, potentially accompanied by food and other supplies. Three of four sources indicated talks are progressing positively, with a tanker potentially dispatched within days if agreement is reached.

Political Dynamics: Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum faces domestic pressure from her ruling Morena party, which maintains ideological ties with Cuba, to continue assistance. Sheinbaum warned that tariffs could trigger a "far-reaching humanitarian crisis" affecting hospitals and basic services.

Humanitarian Concerns: U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres warned Cuba risks humanitarian "collapse" without oil supplies. The Cuban government acknowledged "acute fuel shortages" and promised details within a week.

Market Implications: The situation highlights geopolitical tensions affecting regional energy trade and could impact oil flow patterns in the Caribbean if Mexico successfully negotiates humanitarian exemptions from U.S. tariff threats.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Neutral 75%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Neutral 68%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Neutral 75%
Consensus Neutral 72%