US job openings dropped to a five-year low in December 2025, report shows

• Job openings dropped below economist forecasts of 7.20 million, while hiring increased modestly by 172,000 to 5.293 million positions in December
• Weekly jobless claims jumped 22,000 to 231,000 for the week ended January 31, the largest increase since early December, likely distorted by snowstorms and seasonal adjustment difficulties
• Despite the decline in openings, economists see no signs of recession-level layoffs, with claims remaining within the two-year range and the labor market characterized as stable

Summary

Key Developments

U.S. job openings plummeted to 6.542 million in December 2025, the lowest level since September 2020, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' JOLTS report released Thursday. This represents a decline of 386,000 positions from the previous month. November's data was also revised downward from 7.146 million to 6.928 million openings, both significantly below the Reuters consensus forecast of 7.20 million.

Labor Market Indicators

Hiring showed modest improvement, increasing by 172,000 positions to 5.293 million in December, though levels remain subdued. Initial unemployment claims rose by 22,000 to 231,000 for the week ending January 31—the largest weekly increase since early December. However, economists attribute this spike to temporary factors including severe winter storms affecting Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

Market Context

Despite the headline weakness, analysts characterized the labor market as being in a "low hire, low fire" mode rather than experiencing recessionary conditions. Chief Economist Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics noted that claims levels remain "very low" within the recent two-year range, showing "no sign of the kind of layoffs we expect to see in a weakening labor market."

Outlook

The softening labor demand signals a cooling economy at year-end 2025, though not an imminent recession. Friday's comprehensive jobs report, which would provide clearer insights, has been delayed due to a U.S. government shutdown, leaving investors without complete labor market visibility.