Obesity stocks slump on Novo's underwhelming 2026 sales forecast

• Novo's fourth-quarter operating profit fell 14% to 31.7 billion Danish crowns, slightly beating the 31.2 billion crown estimate
• Wall Street analysts have slashed peak market forecasts from $150 billion to $80-105 billion by 2030 due to sharp U.S. price declines for GLP-1 treatments and increased competition in the cash-pay consumer market
• The broader selloff impacted major competitors, with Structure Therapeutics down 6.2%, Altimmune down 4.2%, and Viking Therapeutics falling over 3%

Summary: Obesity Drug Stocks Decline on Novo Nordisk's Weak 2026 Outlook

Key Development:

Novo Nordisk issued a disappointing 2026 sales forecast, triggering a selloff across the obesity drug sector. The Danish drugmaker projects sales will decline 5-13% in 2026, significantly worse than analysts' expected 2% drop.

Market Impact:

The announcement caused widespread losses among obesity-focused pharmaceutical stocks:

• Eli Lilly: down ~4%
• Structure Therapeutics: fell 6.2%
• Altimmune: dropped 4.2%
• Viking Therapeutics: declined 3%+
• Amgen: slipped nearly 1%

Financial Performance:

Novo Nordisk reported Q4 operating profit of 31.7 billion Danish crowns ($5.02 billion), down 14% year-over-year but slightly beating the 31.2 billion crown estimate.

Market Outlook Revision:

Wall Street is significantly reassessing the obesity drug market's potential. Analysts are now projecting the market will reach $80-105 billion by 2030, sharply down from earlier expectations of $150 billion by early next decade.

Key Drivers:

The downward revision reflects intensifying competition in the weight-loss drug market and sharply falling U.S. prices for GLP-1 treatments from both Novo (Wegovy) and Lilly. Competition is particularly fierce in the cash-pay consumer market segment.

Implications:

The news signals a more challenging competitive landscape than previously anticipated for obesity drug manufacturers, prompting investors to recalibrate growth expectations and peak sales timelines for this once-promising blockbuster category.