Russia's Novak Predicts Oil Demand Increase in March and April

• OPEC+ agreed to maintain current oil output levels for March at a meeting on Sunday, but made no statement regarding production decisions for April and beyond
• Novak indicated that rising demand beginning in March-April will be 'an additional factor helping to maintain balance' in the oil market
• The Russian official did not directly address what OPEC+ production steps might be taken starting in April

Summary

Key Development:

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated on February 3rd that the global oil market is currently balanced, with demand expected to gradually increase in March and April. His comments came following OPEC+'s decision to maintain unchanged oil production levels for March.

OPEC+ Production Policy:

At a Sunday meeting, the OPEC+ group agreed to keep oil output steady for March. However, the group's statement provided no guidance on production decisions beyond March, and Novak avoided directly addressing potential policy changes starting in April.

Market Outlook:

Novak indicated that rising demand beginning around March or April will serve as "an additional factor helping to maintain balance" in the global oil market. This suggests anticipated seasonal demand improvements could influence future production decisions.

Market Implications:

The lack of clarity on OPEC+ policy beyond March introduces uncertainty for oil markets. However, Novak's optimistic demand forecast signals potential support for oil prices in the coming months. The gradual demand increase aligns with typical seasonal patterns as spring approaches in the Northern Hemisphere.

Context:

Russia remains a key member of the OPEC+ alliance, which coordinates production levels among major oil-producing nations to manage global supply and prices. The group's cautious approach—maintaining current output while monitoring demand trends—reflects efforts to balance market stability with member countries' economic interests.

Traders should monitor upcoming OPEC+ announcements regarding April production levels, as any policy shifts will likely impact oil price trajectories heading into the second quarter of 2026.