Dow Jones & Nasdaq 100: US Futures Brace for Fed, Labor Signals

• The US-India trade agreement reduces US reciprocal tariffs from 25% to 18%, with India committing to buy over $500 billion in US products and stop purchasing Russian oil.
• Economists expect JOLTs job openings to decline from 7.146 million to 7.1 million, which would support expectations of multiple Fed rate cuts in 2026 and boost equity valuations.
• All three major index futures (Dow, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500) are trading above their 50-day and 200-day EMAs, signaling bullish momentum, with key upcoming earnings from PepsiCo, AMD, and PayPal.

Market Summary: US Futures Rally on Fed Rate-Cut Bets and Trade Deal

Key Market Movements

US equity futures advanced on February 3, 2026, with Dow Jones E-mini gaining 24 points, Nasdaq 100 E-mini up 83 points, and S&P 500 E-mini rising 10 points. Asian markets followed suit, with the Nikkei 225 surging 2.94% in morning trading. USD/JPY held above the 155 level, supporting positive sentiment.

Major Developments

US-India Trade Agreement: President Trump announced a significant trade deal reducing US reciprocal tariffs on India from 25% to 18%, with India committing to eliminate tariffs and non-tariff barriers to zero. The deal includes over $500 billion in Indian purchases of US energy, technology, agriculture, and other products, plus India's commitment to stop buying Russian oil.

Government Shutdown: Optimism grew over ending the partial US government shutdown, with President Trump working with Speaker Johnson to pass a funding bill through the House.

Economic Outlook

Markets anticipate JOLTs job openings data, expected to decline from 7.146 million (November) to 7.1 million (December), potentially supporting Fed rate-cut expectations for 2026. Stronger US manufacturing data from January also lifted sentiment, though AI spending concerns from Microsoft's earnings tempered enthusiasm.

Corporate Earnings

Key earnings releases include PepsiCo, AMD, and PayPal, which will influence near-term trends.

Technical Levels

• Dow Jones: Resistance at 49,901 (January 13 high) and 50,000; Support at 49,000
• Nasdaq 100: Resistance at 26,000; Support at 25,585 (50-day EMA)
• S&P 500: Resistance at 7,036; Support at 6,909 (50-day EMA)

Analysts maintain a cautiously bullish outlook, contingent on labor market softness supporting Fed rate cuts and strong corporate earnings.