Southwest Airlines Projects Profit Boost in 2026 from New Fees

CNBC | January 28, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
Bullish 82% Confidence Unanimous Agreement
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Key Points

  • Southwest ended its iconic open seating policy after 54 years, moving to assigned seats with upcharges for extra legroom and preferred positions
  • First quarter 2026 revenue per seat mile expected to rise 9.5%, exceeding the 8.5% analyst forecast, with adjusted earnings of 45 cents versus 33 cents expected
  • The airline began charging customers for checked bags in 2025 for the first time in its history, aligning its model more closely with traditional competitors

AI Summary

Southwest Airlines Projects Profit Boost in 2026 from New Fees

Key Developments:

Southwest Airlines (LUV) announced significantly stronger profit projections for 2026, exceeding analyst expectations, following the implementation of major business model changes after 54 years of operations.

Financial Projections:

  • The airline forecasts a minimum adjusted earnings of $4 per share for 2026, well above Wall Street expectations
  • Q1 2026 revenue per available seat mile expected to rise 9.5%, surpassing the 8.5% analyst consensus
  • Q1 2026 adjusted earnings projected at 45 cents per share versus 33 cents expected

Q4 Performance:

  • Revenue reached $7.44 billion versus $7.51 billion expected
  • Earnings per share data was noted but not fully specified in the report

Major Business Model Changes:

Southwest has implemented its most significant operational overhaul in decades, fundamentally shifting from its traditional low-cost carrier model:

  1. Assigned Seating: Replaced the iconic 54-year-old open seating policy this week, with premium charges for preferred seats
  2. Extra Legroom Section: New premium seating options with upcharges
  3. Baggage Fees: Began charging for checked bags in 2025 for the first time in company history

Market Implications:

These changes represent Southwest's strategic pivot toward industry-standard practices, aligning its revenue model with competitors like Delta, United, and American Airlines. The transformation comes amid pressure to improve profitability and suggests the carrier is successfully monetizing previously free services. The stronger-than-expected guidance indicates early success in revenue diversification, potentially making Southwest more attractive to investors seeking improved margins in the airline sector.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bullish 80%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bullish 78%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bullish 90%
Consensus Bullish 82%