Canada's IPO market set for revival, signaling economic confidence
Key Points
- The Toronto Stock Exchange saw only two IPOs in 2025 versus 55 delistings, continuing a three-year trend of net company losses despite the S&P/TSX Composite Index surging 29% and outpacing the S&P 500's 16% gain
- Rockpoint Gas Storage's C$704 million IPO in October 2025, now trading 25% above its IPO price, has set a positive precedent and encouraged banker optimism about the 2026 pipeline
- Bank of Montreal's head of equity capital markets calls the current IPO pipeline 'the strongest since 2021', with companies in fintech, consumer products, resources and technology exploring listings
AI Summary
Canada's IPO Market Poised for Revival in 2026
Canada's dormant initial public offering (IPO) market is showing signs of recovery after a four-year slowdown, signaling renewed economic confidence under Prime Minister Mark Carney's pro-business agenda.
Key Developments
The Toronto Stock Exchange has experienced more delistings than listings for three consecutive years. In 2025, only two IPOs occurred against 55 delistings, driven by privatizations, mergers, and sector consolidation in financial services and energy. High interest rates and inflation previously deterred companies from going public, pushing them toward private equity funding instead.
Despite limited IPO activity, the S&P/TSX Composite Index surged 29% in 2025, outpacing the S&P 500's 16% gain, fueled by strong performance in banking stocks (representing one-third of the market) and mining sector growth.
Market Outlook
Investment bankers report the "strongest" IPO pipeline since 2021, with companies in technology, natural resources, fintech, and consumer products exploring public listings in 2026. Bank of Montreal's Peter Miller noted: "It was a lack of supply, not a lack of demand for IPOs in Canada."
Last year's largest IPO, Rockpoint Gas Storage, raised C$704 million in October and currently trades 25% above its IPO price, setting a positive precedent according to JP Morgan's David Rawlings.
Challenges Remain
Regulatory hurdles, high listing costs, U.S. tariff uncertainty, and market volatility continue to pose obstacles. Post-IPO performance remains critical—Givex Corp lost approximately 25% of its value since its July 2025 listing.
The revival is viewed as validation of increased foreign investment and Carney's economic pledges to boost productivity and forge new international partnerships.
Model Analysis Breakdown
| Model | Sentiment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| GPT-5-mini | Bullish | 75% |
| Claude 4.5 Haiku | Bullish | 72% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Bullish | 85% |
| Consensus | Bullish | 77% |