Tech Stocks Rebound Soothing Greenland-Induced Shivers as Earnings Season Hits Stride

• Technology sector drove the recovery despite Intel falling 16% on weak outlook, with Nvidia gaining on reports of Chinese chip orders and Netflix crossing 325 million paid subscribers while forecasting $50 billion in 2026 revenue
• 75% of S&P 500 companies have beaten EPS estimates so far, though below historical averages as analysts uncharacteristically raised expectations ahead of the season; J.P. Morgan forecasts 13-15% earnings growth for the next two years driven by an 'AI supercycle'
• Six S&P 500 companies reporting this week have confirmed outlier (later than usual) earnings dates, typically a negative signal: Union Pacific, NextEra Energy, Texas Instruments, UnitedHealth Group, and American Express, with only Regeneron Pharmaceuticals reporting earlier than historical norms

Market Summary: Tech Stocks Recover Amid Geopolitical Volatility as Earnings Season Accelerates

Market Performance:

U.S. equity markets experienced significant volatility last week as the VIX surged above 20 on Tuesday following President Trump's Greenland annexation push and threats of 10% tariffs on eight European allies. However, markets recovered by week's end as tariff threats were walked back and a NATO framework deal emerged, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq approaching positive territory.

Sector Highlights:

The Information Technology sector led the recovery despite Intel (INTC) plunging 16% on weak guidance. Key gainers included Nvidia (NVDA), boosted by reports of Chinese firms clearing hurdles to order H200 chips, Netflix (NFLX) following blockbuster earnings, and Meta Platforms (META) on analyst upgrades and Threads ad rollout. J.P. Morgan projects the AI supercycle will drive 13-15% tech earnings growth over the next two years.

Q4 2025 Earnings Scorecard:

With 13% of S&P 500 companies reported, earnings growth stands at 8.2%, marking the 10th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth. Notably, 75% of companies beat EPS estimates, though below historical averages as analysts uncharacteristically raised expectations. Netflix surpassed 325 million paid memberships with projected 2026 revenue exceeding $50 billion.

Week Ahead:

Peak earnings season begins this week through February 27, with Microsoft, Apple, and Alphabet reporting. Six S&P 500 companies confirmed outlier earnings dates: Union Pacific, NextEra Energy, Texas Instruments, UnitedHealth Group, and American Express (late reports, historically bearish), while Regeneron Pharmaceuticals reports earlier than usual. The Federal Reserve's January 28 rate decision adds to market catalysts.