AI spending wasn't the biggest engine of U.S. economic growth in 2025, despite popular assumptions

• AI-related investments contributed 40-50 basis points (0.4-0.5%) to real GDP growth on average between Q1-Q3 2025 after adjusting for imports, representing about 20-25% of total growth rather than being the dominant factor
• Software and computer investments were AI's most important GDP contributions in 2025, not data centers despite their significant headline attention and capital deployment
• Without the AI boom, U.S. GDP growth would still have been 'decent, above 1.5%' due to solid personal consumption, which continues to be supported by fiscal policy and resilient consumer financial health heading into 2026

Summary: AI Spending and U.S. Economic Growth in 2025

Key Finding: Contrary to popular belief, AI spending was not the primary driver of U.S. economic growth in 2025, according to analysis by MRB Partners economic strategist Prajakta Bhide.

Main Drivers of GDP Growth:

• Consumer spending remained the most crucial contributor to GDP growth, consistent with typical economic expansions
• AI-related capital expenditures ranked second but contributed less than widely assumed

Specific Data Points:

• AI-related components added approximately 90 basis points (0.9%) to real GDP growth between Q1-Q3 2025, representing roughly 40% of average real GDP growth
• When adjusted for imports of AI-related equipment (computers, semiconductors, telecom gear), AI's net contribution drops to 40-50 basis points, or about 20-25% of real GDP growth
• Bespoke Investment Group found AI-linked spending accounted for just 15% of quarterly GDP growth in Q2 and Q3 2025
• Software and computer investments, rather than data centers, provided AI's largest GDP contributions

GDP Performance:

• Q3 2025: GDP increased at stronger-than-estimated rate
• Q1 2025: GDP rose robustly
• Q4 2025: First negative quarterly growth since Q1 2022

Market Implications:

Bhide argues the economy would remain resilient without the AI boom, with growth still exceeding 1.5% due to solid consumer spending. The analysis challenges concerns that the economy depends critically on AI investment.

2026 Outlook:

Expected support from continued AI investment, Federal Reserve rate cuts, fiscal policy, and unemployment stabilization. Consumer spending projected to remain resilient despite slower income growth and wealth concentration concerns.