OPEC+ expected to keep oil production paused in March amid rising prices

• The eight OPEC+ members (Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman) collectively pump about half the world's oil supply
• Kazakhstan's crude output has been significantly reduced to 1.0-1.1 million bpd in January versus usual levels of around 1.8 million bpd due to technical issues and drone attacks
• Venezuelan oil production recovery is expected to take time and is not yet likely to have a major impact on global oil market balance, despite U.S. encouragement for investment following leadership change

Summary: OPEC+ Expected to Maintain Oil Production Pause in March

Key Development:

OPEC+ is anticipated to extend its pause on oil output increases through March at a meeting scheduled for February 1, 2026, according to three OPEC+ delegates speaking to Reuters.

Market Performance:

Oil prices have surged 8% in January 2026, exceeding $66 per barrel, supporting the decision to maintain current production levels despite concerns over demand.

Production Details:

Eight OPEC+ members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman—collectively produce approximately half of the world's oil. The group previously raised output targets by around 2.9 million barrels per day (nearly 3% of global demand) for April-December 2025 but paused monthly increases for January-March due to weak demand forecasts.

Supply Disruptions:

Kazakhstan faces significant production challenges, with output reduced to 1.0-1.1 million bpd in January versus the typical 1.8 million bpd. JP Morgan expects Kazakhstan's facilities to remain offline through January due to technical issues and drone attacks.

Venezuela Factor:

Following the U.S. capture of President Nicolas Maduro in early January, the U.S. has encouraged investment in Venezuelan oil production. However, OPEC+ delegates indicate any output recovery will take considerable time and is unlikely to significantly impact global market balance immediately.

Market Implications:

The production pause, combined with supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions, suggests continued support for oil prices in the near term. The decision reflects OPEC+'s cautious approach to balancing market supply amid uncertain demand conditions and various supply constraints affecting key producing nations.