Disappointing earnings season could drive contingent selling, says Ned Davis' Tim Hayes

• The current bull market is mature and vulnerable due to complacent sentiment and weak breadth.
• Emerging markets (EEM) are outperforming, driven by attractive valuations in tech and strength in commodities/materials.
• Key watch points include earnings season, inflation's impact on Fed policy, and excessive market complacency.

The market is in a maturing bull market, characterized by complacent sentiment and weak breadth, making it vulnerable to disappointment this earnings season. Emerging markets (EEM) are outperforming, driven by attractive valuations in tech and strength in commodities/materials, offering better value tech opportunities outside the US.