The Week Ahead: Fed Decision, Dow Earnings Deluge

Schaeffers Research | January 22, 2026 at 06:05 PM UTC
Neutral 90% Confidence Unanimous Agreement
Read Original Article

Key Points

  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a speech following the FOMC interest rate decision on Wednesday, January 28
  • Major economic data releases include previously delayed durable goods orders, trade deficit figures, factory orders, and PPI measurements throughout the week
  • A significant number of Dow components and Big Tech companies will report quarterly earnings, creating potential market volatility

AI Summary

Summary: The Week Ahead - Fed Decision and Major Earnings Reports

Federal Reserve Decision:

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, January 28, 2026, followed by a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 95% probability that rates will remain unchanged.

Major Earnings Reports:

A significant wave of corporate earnings is scheduled for the final week of January, featuring prominent companies across multiple sectors:

  • Big Tech: Tesla, Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta Platforms
  • Energy: Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM)
  • Industrials: Dow (DOW), Lockheed Martin (LMT), RTX (RTX), and UPS (UPS)
  • Technology: IBM (IBM) and Texas Instruments (TXN)
  • Airlines: American Airlines (AAL) and JetBlue Airways (JBLU)
  • Financial Services: SoFi (SOFI)

Economic Data Calendar:

  • Monday, Jan. 26: Previously delayed durable goods orders
  • Tuesday, Jan. 27: Consumer confidence data
  • Wednesday, Jan. 28: FOMC rate decision and Powell speech
  • Thursday, Jan. 29: Jobs data, delayed U.S. trade deficit figures, wholesale inventories, factory orders, and revised productivity data
  • Friday, Jan. 30: Delayed Producer Price Index (PPI) and core PPI

Market Implications:

The concentration of major earnings releases alongside critical economic indicators and the Fed decision creates a potentially volatile week for markets. The 95% expectation of unchanged rates suggests market stability, though Powell's commentary and corporate earnings guidance will be crucial for investor sentiment heading into February.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Neutral 90%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Neutral 85%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Neutral 95%
Consensus Neutral 90%