Gold's Record Rally Continues, Supported By 'Sell America' Trade
Key Points
- Gold gained 4.3% over three days, while silver rose to $95 per ounce (up 2.5% over three days), with other precious metals like platinum and palladium also seeing demand growth
- The 'sell America' trade triggered a spike in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.3% (highest since August) and weakness in the U.S. Dollar Index, which fell from 99.32 to 98.60
- Central bank purchases, expectations of easier monetary policy, and elevated geopolitical risks continue supporting gold's momentum as investors seek safe-haven alternatives to U.S. assets
AI Summary
Summary: Gold Reaches Record Highs Amid "Sell America" Trade
Key Market Movements:
Gold surged to a record high of $4,898 per ounce on Wednesday, gaining 4.3% over three days and approaching the psychologically significant $5,000 level. The SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) advanced approximately 2%. Silver also rallied, trading around $93.70 per ounce after briefly exceeding $95 on Tuesday, up 2.5% over three days.
Market Drivers:
The precious metals rally reflects a "flight to safety" triggered by President Trump's aggressive tariff rhetoric and geopolitical tensions at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Analysts describe the movement as a "sell America" trade, with investors rotating out of U.S. assets. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly topped 4.3%—its highest since August—before declining as bond buying resumed. The U.S. Dollar Index fell to 98.60 from 99.32.
Expert Outlook:
Yardeni Research projects year-end gold prices between $5,000-$6,000, citing expectations of easier monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and central bank purchases. Bitget CEO Gracy Chen expects gold to find support around $4,700 before potentially accelerating toward $5,000. Analysts note industrial metals including platinum and palladium are also seeing increased demand.
Market Context:
Contributing factors include concerns over Federal Reserve independence, multiple geopolitical conflicts, NATO alliance uncertainty, and Trump's Greenland ambitions. David Morrison of FCA characterized recent pullbacks as "corrective rather than trend-breaking," suggesting the supportive backdrop for precious metals remains intact. Equity markets slumped amid the broader risk-off sentiment.
Model Analysis Breakdown
| Model | Sentiment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| GPT-5-mini | Bullish | 80% |
| Claude 4.5 Haiku | Bullish | 82% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Bearish | 90% |
| Consensus | Neutral | 84% |