Venezuelan Oil Exports to US Progressing Slowly, Reports Show

Reuters | January 21, 2026 at 03:43 PM UTC
Neutral 75% Confidence Majority Agreement
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Key Points

  • Only seven tankers have departed Venezuelan waters since January 12, carrying oil to Caribbean storage terminals in the Bahamas, St. Lucia, and Curacao, with customers reluctant to pay traders' asking prices
  • Venezuela reports $300-500 million in initial proceeds from sales, while Chevron has accelerated shipments beyond its December rate of 100,000 barrels per day
  • Storage and transfer challenges continue to prevent PDVSA from significantly reducing inventories or reversing production cuts imposed in early January

AI Summary

Summary

Venezuela has exported approximately 7.8 million barrels of crude oil to the U.S. under a $2 billion supply agreement, according to vessel-tracking data and PDVSA documents released Wednesday. The deal, negotiated after the U.S. capture of President Nicolas Maduro, permits Venezuela to sell up to 50 million barrels of crude currently stored in tanks and vessels.

Key Players: Trading houses Vitol and Trafigura received the first licenses to load and export Venezuelan cargoes. Chevron, PDVSA's main joint venture partner, remains the only other company actively exporting Venezuelan crude, accelerating shipments from 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December.

Progress and Challenges: Since January 12, seven tankers have departed Venezuelan waters, transporting crude to storage terminals in the Bahamas, St. Lucia, and Curacao's Bullen Bay terminal. However, progress has been slower than anticipated due to storage transfer difficulties and customer resistance to trader pricing. The additional supply has not significantly reduced PDVSA's swollen inventories or reversed output cuts imposed in early January.

Financial Details: U.S. officials indicated approximately $500 million in proceeds from initial sales would be deposited into a fund. Venezuela's government reported $300 million in early proceeds designated for imports and spending, though specific export volumes remain undisclosed.

Market Implications: The sluggish pace of Venezuelan oil exports suggests limited near-term impact on global oil supply. Storage constraints and pricing disputes continue to hamper the deal's effectiveness in addressing Venezuela's inventory backlog and production challenges, potentially disappointing expectations for meaningful crude market relief.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bullish 70%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bearish 75%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bullish 80%
Consensus Neutral 75%