Kevin Warsh soars ahead of Hassett in Polymarket, Kalshi odds on next Fed chair after Trump signal

• Warsh's nomination odds climbed to 59% on both major prediction markets, while Hassett dropped to 15-16% and Fed Governor Christopher Waller stands at 15%
• Trump said 'I actually want to keep you where you are' to Hassett during White House remarks, while noting 'we'll see how it all works out'
• Powell's term as Fed chair expires in May, though he could remain a board member through 2028; Trump has ruled out Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for the position

Summary: Warsh Emerges as Front-Runner for Fed Chair After Trump Comments

Key Development: Kevin Warsh's odds of becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair surged to 59% on both Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets following President Trump's Friday remarks suggesting he wants to keep Kevin Hassett in his current National Economic Council role.

Shifting Odds:

• Kevin Warsh: 59% (significantly increased)
• Kevin Hassett: 15-16% (dropped after leading for weeks)
• Christopher Waller: 15-15.6%
• Rick Rieder (BlackRock): <10%

Background Context: Trump must name a replacement for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, whose term expires in May. Powell could remain as a Fed governor through 2028 but hasn't indicated his plans. The President has ruled out Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for the position, stating Bessent prefers his current role.

Trump's Comments: While praising Hassett's television appearance Friday, Trump stated, "I actually want to keep you where you are, if you want to know the truth." However, he left the door slightly open, telling Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, "We don't want to lose him, but we'll see how it all works out."

Historical Precedent: Trump noted that transitions between White House roles and Fed positions are possible, citing Stephen Miran's move from White House economic adviser to Fed Governor on unpaid leave after Adriana Kugler's resignation last summer.

Market Implications: The uncertainty around Fed leadership comes as Trump has criticized Powell for years over interest rate policy. No specific announcement date has been set for the nomination decision.