Dealmakers see more retail mergers and IPOs in 2026 after tariffs sidelined M&A last year
Key Points
- Goldman Sachs reports the number of high-quality companies queued for 2026 IPOs is the highest since 2021, potentially reopening regular exit opportunities for private equity investors
- Major deals resumed in late 2025 after Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs stalled activity, including Kimberly-Clark buying Kenvue, Kraft Heinz unwinding its 2015 merger, and Keurig Dr Pepper's $18 billion JDE Peet's acquisition
- Private equity firms are outbidding corporations for some deals, and activist investors taking stakes in companies like Starbucks and Lululemon could drive additional M&A activity and corporate breakups in 2026
AI Summary
Summary: Retail M&A and IPO Activity Expected to Rebound in 2026
Key Developments:
Dealmakers anticipate increased mergers and IPO activity in the retail and consumer goods sectors for 2026 after tariffs significantly disrupted deals in early 2025. Industry executives, bankers, and private equity investors gathered at the ICR Conference in Orlando to discuss the improved outlook.
Market Activity:
Goldman Sachs reports the number of high-quality companies queued for IPOs in 2026 is the highest since 2021. Several chains are preparing public offerings, including Hellman & Friedman-backed Caliber Holdings and Bain Capital portfolio companies. Over 3,000 attendees participated in the conference, including executives from Walmart, Shake Shack, and Jersey Mike's.
Recent Major Deals:
The second half of 2025 saw a resurgence in mega-deals:
- Kimberly-Clark announced acquisition of Kenvue (November)
- Kraft Heinz announced plans to unwind its 2015 merger (September)
- Keurig Dr Pepper acquired JDE Peet's for $18 billion
- Gildan Activewear bought Hanesbrands for $2.2 billion
Market Challenges:
President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcements in spring 2025 sent markets declining and stalled numerous consumer and retail transactions during the first half of the year.
Emerging Trends:
- Companies focusing on larger deals after years of caution
- Activist investors taking stakes in major retailers like Lululemon, though not yet pushing for M&A
- Private equity firms increasingly outbidding corporations for acquisitions
- Potential for more corporate carveouts, particularly brands within larger conglomerates
- Manna Tree Partners recently sold Good Culture cottage cheese brand to L Catterton
Model Analysis Breakdown
| Model | Sentiment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| GPT-5-mini | Bullish | 75% |
| Claude 4.5 Haiku | Bullish | 72% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Bullish | 90% |
| Consensus | Bullish | 79% |