'Markets are callous': Why stocks aren't fazed by Iran, Greenland or Venezuela

• Major U.S. indices are all positive for the year: the S&P 500 up 1.5%, Dow Jones up nearly 3%, and Nasdaq up 1.2%, showing Wall Street is largely unfazed by geopolitical headlines.
• Analysts attribute the muted market reaction to isolated events with no major power responses, absence of significant oil price shocks, and markets becoming 'conditioned' to Trump's actions since 2025.
• Asian markets have performed particularly well, with the MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index up over 5% to record highs, driven by expectations of easier monetary policy and continued AI spending rather than geopolitical concerns.

Market Summary: Geopolitical Tensions Fail to Dent Global Equity Rally

Key Market Performance:

Despite significant geopolitical turmoil in early 2026, global equity markets have continued their upward trajectory. The S&P 500 has gained approximately 1.5% year-to-date through January 15, with only three losing sessions. The Dow Jones has added nearly 3%, while the Nasdaq Composite is up 1.2%. European markets have performed even stronger, with the Stoxx 600 rising almost 4%. Asian markets have surged over 5%, with Japan's Nikkei 225 and South Korea's Kospi reaching all-time highs.

Geopolitical Events:

The Trump administration has captured Venezuela's President Maduro, threatened military action against Iran following violent protest crackdowns, and discussed potentially using force to annex Greenland from Denmark. While these developments have caused volatility in commodities like oil and gold, equity markets have remained largely unfazed.

Expert Analysis:

Market professionals attribute the muted reaction to several factors:

• No responses from other major economic or military powers
• Operations remain targeted and short-lived with no ongoing commitments
• Investors have become conditioned to Trump's rhetoric and policy reversals
• The U.S. dollar index has risen 1%, indicating no defensive positioning
• No major oil supply shocks have materialized

Eric Freedman of Northern Trust Wealth Management ($1.7 trillion AUM) noted markets are viewing events "in isolation." Benjamin Jones of Invesco stated that "markets are callous and only react meaningfully when these events impact economic fundamentals."

Market Outlook:

Analysts suggest continued AI spending, monetary easing expectations, and strong earnings growth are supporting equities despite elevated geopolitical risks.