US PPI ticks higher in November while retail sales surge, beating estimates

• Core producer prices were flat monthly (below 0.2% forecast) but rose 3.0% annually, exceeding the 2.7% estimate and indicating stubborn inflation despite cooler monthly growth
• Retail sales excluding autos, gas, building materials and food services rose 0.4% in November, supporting GDP estimates with the Atlanta Fed projecting 5.1% Q4 growth
• Consumer spending strength is uneven, driven by higher-income households while lower-income consumers face strain from food prices rising by the most in over three years

Summary: US PPI and Retail Sales Data for November 2025

Key Economic Indicators

Producer Price Index (PPI):

• Headline PPI rose 0.2% month-over-month in November, up from 0.1% in October, meeting expectations
• Annual PPI accelerated to 3.0% from 2.8%, exceeding forecasts of 2.7%
• Core PPI (excluding food and energy) remained flat monthly, below the expected 0.2% increase
• Year-over-year core PPI edged up to 3.0% from 2.9%, surpassing the 2.7% forecast
• Final demand goods prices jumped 1.2%, while services prices stayed flat

Retail Sales:

• Total retail sales rebounded 0.6% to $735.9 billion in November, beating the 0.4% forecast
• Core retail sales (excluding autos, gas, building materials, and food services) rose 0.4%
• October figures were revised down to a 0.1% decline

Market Implications

The data reveals persistent upstream price pressures despite resilient consumer spending. Higher-income households are driving consumption growth, while lower-income consumers face strain from elevated living costs. Food prices increased by the most in over three years in December.

Economic growth remains robust, with Q3 GDP at 4.3% and Atlanta Fed projecting Q4 at 5.1%. The Federal Reserve anticipates faster growth in 2026 than 2025, supported by expectations of favorable tax policy and reduced volatility under President Trump's second term.

Note: Data releases were delayed due to a 43-day government shutdown that disrupted federal statistical agencies.