Cuba Faces Deadline as Trump Halts Venezuelan Oil Supply

• The last Venezuelan oil cargo to Cuba was sent in mid-December carrying 600,000 barrels, with Venezuela previously supplying 26,500 bpd compared to Mexico's 5,000 bpd
• Cuba's political allies including Angola, Algeria, and Brazil have not provided oil support, leaving only Mexico and Russia offering limited assistance insufficient to meet the island's energy needs
• Cuban President Diaz-Canel vowed to 'defend the homeland until the last drop of blood' and rejected U.S. pressure to strike a deal, while Trump warned Cuba to negotiate 'before it is too late'

Summary

Key Development: U.S. President Donald Trump has vowed to cut off Venezuelan oil supplies to Cuba, creating a potential humanitarian and economic crisis for the island nation already suffering from severe blackouts and shortages.

Critical Data Points:

• Venezuela supplied 26,500 barrels per day (bpd) to Cuba in 2025—approximately one-third of the island's daily needs
• No Venezuelan crude or fuel has reached Cuba for about a month
• The last cargo arrived mid-December: 600,000 barrels of crude via a transponder-off tanker
• Mexico supplies only 5,000 bpd—far below Cuba's requirements
• Cuba has a population of approximately 10 million

Market Implications:

The oil supply cutoff follows the U.S. capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in early January. Energy experts predict a "catastrophic" situation for Cuba, with no significant support from traditional allies including Angola, Algeria, or Brazil. While Mexico delivered 85,000 barrels via the Ocean Mariner tanker on Friday, this represents only a fraction of Cuba's needs.

Current Situation:

• Rural Cuba already faces severe infrastructure challenges with horse-drawn transportation and intermittent electricity
• Havana has experienced slightly improved conditions in early January due to decreased power demand
• Fuel remains rationed but available in the capital
• Cuba's oil reserves are unknown

Political Stance:

Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel has rejected U.S. pressure, stating "nobody tells us what to do," while Trump continues pushing for a deal "before it is too late." The standoff creates uncertainty for Cuban citizens already struggling with food, medicine, and fuel shortages.