Trump says any country doing business with Iran will face 25% U.S. tariff

CNBC | January 12, 2026 at 11:39 PM UTC
Bearish 82% Confidence Unanimous Agreement
Read Original Article

Key Points

  • The tariff applies to 'any and all business' done with the U.S. by countries that conduct trade with Iran, with Trump calling the order 'final and conclusive'
  • The announcement comes as Iran faces massive internal protests with dozens reportedly killed in recent weeks, prompting Trump to threaten military action if killings continue
  • The legal basis for these tariffs is unclear, with the Supreme Court set to rule on whether Trump's previous expansive tariffs invoked under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) are legal

AI Summary

SUMMARY

President Donald Trump announced on Monday that any country conducting business with Iran will face an immediate 25% tariff on all trade with the United States. The directive, posted on Truth Social, is described as "effective immediately" and labeled "final and conclusive."

Key Details:

  • Tariff rate: 25% on all business conducted with the U.S. by Iran's trading partners
  • Effective date: Immediate implementation
  • Legal basis: Unclear if using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), similar to Trump's previous "reciprocal" tariffs

Context and Implications:

The move aims to economically isolate Iran amid widespread domestic protests in the oil-rich nation. Dozens of protesters have reportedly been killed in recent weeks, prompting Trump to threaten military action if killings continue. The president has publicly encouraged the demonstrations, stating "Iran is looking at FREEDOM" and offering U.S. support.

Market Considerations:

  • Major implications for countries with significant Iran trade relationships, particularly China, India, Turkey, and EU nations
  • Potential disruptions to global supply chains and commodity markets
  • Timing coincides with an anticipated Supreme Court ruling on the legality of Trump's expansive tariff programs imposed under IEEPA
  • Oil markets may experience volatility given Iran's role as a major crude producer

Outstanding Questions:

The White House declined to provide additional details about implementation, exemptions, or specific enforcement mechanisms. Further clarification is expected as the situation develops. The announcement represents a significant escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions with broad international trade ramifications.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bearish 80%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bearish 82%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bearish 85%
Consensus Bearish 82%