Stock Market Today: Dow Futures Fall After Prosecutors Launch Powell Criminal Probe

WSJ | January 12, 2026 at 10:04 AM UTC
Bearish 90% Confidence Unanimous Agreement
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Key Points

  • Dow futures declined alongside S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures in early Monday trading, while the dollar weakened against major currencies including the euro, pound, and Swiss franc
  • Gold and silver futures surged approximately 2% and 6% respectively as investors sought safe-haven assets amid the political uncertainty
  • Asian markets showed divergence with Chinese and Japanese stocks rallying over 1%, while mainland Chinese exchanges saw record trading volumes

AI Summary

Market Summary: Dow Futures Decline on Powell Criminal Probe News

Key Developments

U.S. stock futures fell Monday after prosecutors launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The Justice Department issued grand jury subpoenas to the Fed regarding Powell's testimony last summer about central bank renovations, raising the possibility of criminal indictment.

Market Reaction

U.S. Markets:

  • Futures for all three major U.S. indexes declined in early trading
  • The U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies including the euro, pound, and Swiss franc

Commodities:

  • Gold futures surged approximately 2%
  • Silver futures jumped roughly 6%
  • The rally in precious metals reflects a flight to safe-haven assets

International Markets:

  • Chinese and Japanese stock benchmarks rose over 1%
  • European markets showed mixed performance: DAX +0.09%, FTSE 100 -0.07%, CAC 40 -0.37%, IBEX 35 -1.14%

Market Implications

Powell characterized the investigation as a "pretext" for President Trump's campaign to pressure the Fed into lowering interest rates. This development introduces significant uncertainty around Fed independence and monetary policy decision-making. The divergence between falling U.S. equity futures and rising Asian stocks, combined with dollar weakness and precious metals strength, signals investor concern about U.S. political-institutional stability.

The investigation's timing and nature raise questions about central bank autonomy, potentially impacting future policy decisions and market confidence in the Fed's independence from political pressure.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bearish 90%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bearish 85%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bearish 95%
Consensus Bearish 90%