Stock Market Today: Dow Futures Fall After Prosecutors Launch Powell Criminal Probe

WSJ | January 12, 2026 at 10:04 AM UTC
Bearish 90% Confidence Unanimous Agreement
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Key Points

  • Dow futures fell early Monday while the dollar weakened against major currencies including the euro, pound, and Swiss franc
  • Gold and silver futures surged approximately 2% and 6% respectively as investors sought safe-haven assets
  • Asian markets moved in opposite direction with Chinese and Japanese stock benchmarks rising over 1%

AI Summary

Market Summary: DOW Futures Drop on Powell Criminal Investigation

Key Developments

U.S. stock futures declined Monday following news that federal prosecutors have launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The Justice Department has issued grand jury subpoenas to the Fed regarding Powell's testimony last summer about central bank renovations, potentially leading to criminal indictment.

Market Response

U.S. Markets:

  • Futures for all three major U.S. indexes fell in early trading
  • U.S. dollar weakened against the euro, pound, and Swiss franc

Commodities:

  • Gold futures surged approximately 2%
  • Silver futures jumped roughly 6%

International Markets:

  • Chinese and Japanese stock benchmarks rallied over 1%
  • Record trading volumes reported across mainland Chinese exchanges

European Markets (Mixed Performance):

  • DAX (Germany): +0.09% at 25,284.03
  • FTSE 100 (UK): -0.07% at 10,117.55
  • CAC 40 (France): -0.37% at 8,331.56
  • IBEX 35 (Spain): -1.14% at 17,447.70

Political Context

Powell characterized the investigation as a "pretext" for President Trump's campaign to pressure the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. This development raises significant concerns about central bank independence and potential political interference in monetary policy.

Market Implications

The investigation creates uncertainty around Fed leadership and independence, driving investors toward safe-haven assets like precious metals. The dollar's weakness and mixed global market performance reflect concerns about U.S. institutional stability and potential monetary policy disruptions.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bearish 90%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bearish 85%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bearish 95%
Consensus Bearish 90%