Trump revealed some of Friday's jobs data early in post the prior day
Key Points
- Trump's post disclosed that private sector payrolls expanded by 654,000 for full year 2025, allowing traders to estimate Friday's December figure and potentially rule out a job loss scenario before the official 8:30 AM release
- The official December jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls increased 50,000, with 48,000 from private sector, slightly below estimates but alleviating concerns about steeper employment drops
- While the post did not allow exact calculation due to missing revision data, it gave market participants advance insight that could have influenced trading positions ahead of the market-moving release
AI Summary
Summary: Trump Prematurely Discloses December Jobs Data
President Donald Trump appears to have violated federal policy by indirectly revealing December's nonfarm payrolls data in a social media post Thursday evening, approximately one day before the official Friday release.
Key Details:
In a post around 9 p.m. Thursday, Trump disclosed that private sector payrolls expanded by 654,000 for the full year 2025, which would have included Friday's December employment figures. Office of Management and Budget policy explicitly prohibits executive branch officials from commenting on such market-sensitive releases early and mandates waiting at least 30 minutes after official publication.
Official December Data:
Friday's official release showed nonfarm payrolls increased 50,000 in December, with 48,000 from the private sector. The figures came in slightly below economist estimates but eased concerns about steeper employment declines. Stock futures rose following the data.
Trump's post also distinguished between private sector gains and government job losses, noting 181,000 federal positions were eliminated in 2025.
Market Implications:
While Trump's premature disclosure didn't provide exact figures due to missing revision data, traders could have estimated approximate payroll numbers and potentially ruled out a December job loss scenario that would have negatively impacted markets. This advance information could have provided trading advantages to those monitoring Trump's social media.
Historical Context:
This isn't Trump's first violation of jobs data protocols—he previously hinted at positive employment figures during his first term, drawing similar criticism. The White House has been contacted for comment on the latest breach of statistical release policy.
Model Analysis Breakdown
| Model | Sentiment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| GPT-5-mini | Neutral | 70% |
| Claude 4.5 Haiku | Neutral | 72% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Bullish | 85% |
| Consensus | Neutral | 75% |