US stocks jittery at open after jobs data: S&P up 0.2%, Nasdaq flat

• December nonfarm payrolls increased by only 50,000, below the 73,000 estimate and November's revised 56,000, but unemployment unexpectedly dropped to 4.4% from an expected 4.5%
• Markets remain on track for weekly gains, with the S&P 500 up 0.9%, the Dow up 1.8%, and the Nasdaq up 1.1% for the week
• Prediction market Kalshi assigns a 28% probability the Supreme Court will fully uphold Trump's tariffs; Wells Fargo estimates striking them down could lift S&P 500 EBIT by 2.4% in 2026

Market Summary: US Stocks Mixed After Jobs Data

Market Performance:

US stocks opened with modest gains on Friday, January 9, 2026. The S&P 500 rose 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite remained flat. The Dow Jones Industrial Average outperformed with a 184-point gain (0.4%). All three indices remained on track for weekly gains: S&P 500 up 0.9%, Dow up 1.8%, and Nasdaq up 1.1% week-to-date.

Key Economic Data:

December's employment report showed weaker-than-expected job creation, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by just 50,000—below the Dow Jones estimate of 73,000 and November's downwardly revised 56,000. However, the unemployment rate improved to 4.4%, beating expectations of 4.5%. The broader labor underutilization measure fell to 8.4%, while the household survey showed employment rising by 232,000, despite labor force participation slipping to 62.4%.

Market Implications:

Investors are cautiously monitoring a potential US Supreme Court ruling on President Trump's global tariffs, scheduled for Friday. The case concerns "Liberation Day" tariffs and could significantly impact trade policy and corporate costs. Prediction market Kalshi assigns a 28% probability of full tariff approval.

Morgan Stanley analysts noted the ruling could be nuanced rather than binary, with the court potentially narrowing presidential authority or allowing selective tariffs. Wells Fargo estimates that striking down tariffs could boost S&P 500 EBIT by 2.4% in 2026, likely driving equity repricing higher.

Despite tariff uncertainty reminiscent of April's 5% market sell-off, US stocks have rebounded strongly, gaining over 16% in 2025 and reaching record highs.