Countries and industries most exposed to Trump's IEEPA-based tariffs

Reuters | January 08, 2026 at 11:43 PM UTC
Bearish 85% Confidence Majority Agreement
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Key Points

  • China and Hong Kong face 10% tariffs on consumer electronics, machinery, and medical devices, affecting major retailers like Walmart, Costco, Amazon, and Target
  • India faces the steepest tariffs at 50% on key exports including pharmaceuticals, refined fuels, and specialty chemicals, impacting companies like Sun Pharma and Cipla
  • Mexico and Canada are subject to 25% tariffs on non-USMCA compliant goods including autos and industrial components, while USMCA-compliant products remain tariff-free

AI Summary

Summary: Countries and Industries Most Exposed to Trump's IEEPA-Based Tariffs

The U.S. Supreme Court is reviewing the legality of tariffs imposed under President Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). If ruled illegal, the administration may be required to refund billions in collected tariffs to importers.

Key Legal Developments:

Major corporations including Walmart, Revlon, EssilorLuxottica, Bumble Bee Foods, Yokohama Tire, and Kawasaki Motors have sued the U.S. government challenging these tariffs. The IEEPA-based tariffs include fentanyl-linked duties on China, Mexico, and Canada; broad "reciprocal" tariffs targeting trade deficits; and punitive levies for political reasons.

Tariff Rates by Region:

  • China/Hong Kong: 10% on consumer electronics, machinery, medical devices (impacts Walmart, Apple, Amazon, Target)
  • Taiwan: 20% on semiconductors (TSMC, MediaTek)
  • Mexico/Canada: 25% on non-USMCA compliant goods including autos and auto parts (GM, Ford)
  • EU/UK: 15% on most EU goods, 10-25% on UK goods (BMW, Volkswagen, Stellantis)
  • India: 50% on key exports including pharmaceuticals and auto components
  • Brazil: 40% punitive plus 10% reciprocal tariff on steel and aluminum
  • Southeast Asia: 19-20% on apparel, electronics, furniture (Nike, Gap, Adidas)

Exemptions:

Pharmaceuticals, energy, agricultural commodities, services, aircraft, and aerospace industries remain largely exempt due to their critical nature and global supply chain importance.

Market Implications:

Japan, South Korea, and other countries have negotiated reduced rates (around 15%) through tariff-reduction deals. The Supreme Court's decision could significantly impact global trade relationships and corporate costs across multiple sectors.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bearish 80%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bearish 82%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Neutral 95%
Consensus Bearish 85%