Market strategist predicts ‘massive stock market collapse' coming in 2026
Key Points
- Horwitz warns equity markets could decline 40-60%, noting that only once in history has the market sustained double-digit gains for four consecutive years, making 2026 unlikely to continue the streak.
- Rate cuts are identified as a 'drastic mistake' that primarily benefit banks and government debt rather than average households, while AI-driven job displacement could force workers into a difficult employment market and potentially lead to universal basic income.
- Gold is forecast to reach $6,000 and silver above $80 in 2026, driven by persistent inflation (which Horwitz believes is understated), poor monetary policy, and a 'K-shaped economy' benefiting only the top 10%.
AI Summary
Market Summary: Strategist Warns of Major Equity Correction by 2026
Key Warning and Figures:
Todd Horwitz, Chief Market Strategist at Bubba Trading, predicts a "massive stock market collapse" with equities potentially declining 40-60% over the next market cycle. While not exclusively confined to 2026, he views U.S. equity benchmarks as significantly vulnerable to a major downturn.
Main Concerns:
*Rate Cuts:* Horwitz considers further rate reductions a "drastic mistake," arguing they primarily benefit banks and government debt rather than average households, while reinforcing inflationary pressures.
*Job Market:* Expected job losses due to AI and the "technical revolution" will displace workers who may struggle to find new employment, potentially necessitating universal basic income programs.
*Corporate Earnings:* Companies at the center of emerging tech trends are accused of "playing a shell game" with earnings through internal spending, artificially inflating results and raising valuation concerns.
Investment Recommendations:
Despite his bearish equity outlook, Horwitz remains fully invested but actively hedges positions. He presents a strongly bullish case for precious metals:
- Gold: Could reach $6,000 (specific timeframe: next twelve months into 2026)
- Silver: May climb above $80
- Platinum: Expected to advance (no specific target provided)
Market Context:
Horwitz notes U.S. markets have experienced three consecutive years of double-digit gains—a streak that has only extended to four years once in history. He doubts 2026 will replicate this performance, citing persistent inflation, excessive federal spending, and a K-shaped economy benefiting primarily the top 10%.
Model Analysis Breakdown
| Model | Sentiment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| GPT-5-mini | Bearish | 75% |
| Claude 4.5 Haiku | Bearish | 70% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Bearish | 85% |
| Consensus | Bearish | 76% |