Market strategist predicts ‘massive stock market collapse' coming in 2026

Finbold | January 05, 2026 at 02:01 PM UTC
Bearish 76% Confidence Unanimous Agreement
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Key Points

  • Horwitz warns equity markets could decline 40-60%, noting that only once in history has the market sustained double-digit gains for four consecutive years, making 2026 unlikely to continue the streak.
  • Rate cuts are identified as a 'drastic mistake' that primarily benefit banks and government debt rather than average households, while AI-driven job displacement could force workers into a difficult employment market and potentially lead to universal basic income.
  • Gold is forecast to reach $6,000 and silver above $80 in 2026, driven by persistent inflation (which Horwitz believes is understated), poor monetary policy, and a 'K-shaped economy' benefiting only the top 10%.

AI Summary

Market Summary: Strategist Warns of Major Equity Correction by 2026

Key Warning and Figures:

Todd Horwitz, Chief Market Strategist at Bubba Trading, predicts a "massive stock market collapse" with equities potentially declining 40-60% over the next market cycle. While not exclusively confined to 2026, he views U.S. equity benchmarks as significantly vulnerable to a major downturn.

Main Concerns:

*Rate Cuts:* Horwitz considers further rate reductions a "drastic mistake," arguing they primarily benefit banks and government debt rather than average households, while reinforcing inflationary pressures.

*Job Market:* Expected job losses due to AI and the "technical revolution" will displace workers who may struggle to find new employment, potentially necessitating universal basic income programs.

*Corporate Earnings:* Companies at the center of emerging tech trends are accused of "playing a shell game" with earnings through internal spending, artificially inflating results and raising valuation concerns.

Investment Recommendations:

Despite his bearish equity outlook, Horwitz remains fully invested but actively hedges positions. He presents a strongly bullish case for precious metals:

  • Gold: Could reach $6,000 (specific timeframe: next twelve months into 2026)
  • Silver: May climb above $80
  • Platinum: Expected to advance (no specific target provided)

Market Context:

Horwitz notes U.S. markets have experienced three consecutive years of double-digit gains—a streak that has only extended to four years once in history. He doubts 2026 will replicate this performance, citing persistent inflation, excessive federal spending, and a K-shaped economy benefiting primarily the top 10%.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bearish 75%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bearish 70%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bearish 85%
Consensus Bearish 76%