Nasdaq tipped to lead Wall Street into 2026 on front foot

• Gold hits new high above $4,550 on Boxing Day before retreating to $4,374, while bitcoin trades at $89,340 and crude oil at $56.90
• Major tech IPOs including SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic and Kraken could raise trillions in 2026 as AI shifts from 'promise' to 'payoff' phase
• S&P 500 trading at 22x forward earnings above historical averages signals expensive valuations requiring stronger fundamentals

Nasdaq Set to Lead 2026 Market Opening Amid Tech Optimism

US markets are poised for a positive start to 2026, with Nasdaq futures leading gains at +0.9%, followed by Russell 2000 (+0.6%), S&P 500 (+0.5%), and Dow Jones (+0.4%). The tech-heavy momentum continues from 2025's strong performance, though trading volumes are expected to remain light due to lingering holiday absences.

Key Market Levels:

• Gold: $4,374/oz (+1.3%), after hitting a record $4,550 on Boxing Day before retreating to $4,300 on New Year's Eve
• WTI Crude: $56.90/barrel (slightly down)
• Bitcoin: $89,340 (+0.6%)
• Ethereum: $3,050 (+2.3%)

2026 Market Themes:

Market analyst Kenny Polcari of Slatestone Wealth outlined five critical factors for the year ahead:

1. Midterm Elections: Expected to create headline risk with increased volatility, though final results won't emerge until November

1. Tech IPO Boom: Potential landmark offerings from SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, and Kraken could raise trillions in capital

1. AI Reality Check: Investors will demand proof of monetization rather than promises, separating winners from mere spenders

1. Fed Leadership Change: Jerome Powell's term expires in May, creating uncertainty around future monetary policy direction

1. Valuation Concerns: S&P 500 trading at 22x forward earnings, above historical averages, making fundamentals increasingly important

Limited economic data is expected today, with only the S&P Global manufacturing PMI and Fed balance sheet update scheduled. The combination of high valuations and multiple uncertainties suggests 2026 could see more selective market performance compared to recent years.