What to Expect in Markets This Week: New Year's Holiday, Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, Fed Minutes

• Fed's December meeting minutes on Tuesday will reveal member views on the economy's trajectory as the central bank weighs its next interest rate decision amid labor market concerns
• Twenty-two states will raise their minimum wage starting January 1st, with economic indicators showing pending home sales and housing price data due Monday and Tuesday respectively
• Bond markets close early at 2 p.m. ET on New Year's Eve Wednesday, while stock markets operate on normal schedule before the year's first trading session on Friday

Market Week Ahead: New Year Trading Schedule and Key Economic Data

Markets will close out 2025 with major indexes posting double-digit gains for the year. Trading will be shortened for the New Year holiday, with bond markets closing early at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, December 31, while stock markets operate on normal schedule. Markets will be closed Thursday, January 1, for New Year's Day, with the first trading session of 2026 on Friday, January 2.

Key Economic Releases:

• Monday, December 29: November pending home sales data will provide insight into future sales levels in a challenging housing market
• Tuesday, December 30: S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (October) arrives as home prices show signs of plateauing; December FOMC meeting minutes will reveal Fed members' economic outlook ahead of their next policy decision; Chicago Business Barometer (December)
• Wednesday, December 31: Weekly jobless claims (week ending December 27) will highlight labor market conditions as the Fed monitors employment data for rate decisions

The FOMC minutes come as the Fed maintains focus on labor market developments while considering future interest rate moves. Recent data suggests the U.S. economy may have lost jobs between April and September.

No significant corporate earnings are scheduled for the week, shifting investor attention to economic indicators and Fed policy signals.

Additional Market Note: Twenty-two states will implement minimum wage increases in 2026, with 19 states making changes on New Year's Day, potentially impacting labor costs and consumer spending patterns.

The shortened trading week and light data calendar suggest potentially lower trading volumes as investors position for 2026, with historical patterns indicating the first session often sets the tone for the year ahead.